Aim to find out if predictive political bettors can be more accurate than pollsters

Last week, the Iowa caucuses announced the start of the U.S. presidential nomination process, drawing a flurry of predictions about which candidates will resign and who will eventually become their party’s candidate.

There was also a political futures trading frenzy in the political forecasting market, “Predictive It.” As a result, traders who bet heavily on Republican candidate Donald Trump went on to sell their stocks to reduce losses. Meanwhile, the stock price of Bernie Sanders’ victory went through the roof in the Democratic Party. With the early results, Hillary Clinton is expected to win as expected. Sanders started to surge and his stock price rose to 48 ¢s, but he lost by a narrow margin and fell to 1 ¢.

On the site, 1.4 million shares were traded last Monday, and there’s reason to believe more will be traded as other states host primaries and conventions in the coming weeks and months, starting with New Hampshire’s primary vote on Tuesday, Feb. 9.

Prediction With over 60,000 users, there are currently 19,000 active users on the site. As election season begins and people learn more about the site through media reports and social media, that number is bound to rise. And like most other forms of gambling, the prospect of betting on elections is gaining more mainstream support. In 2014, Nevada Senator Richard Segerblom proposed a bill that would allow Nevada’s sports books to bet on political elections, which has been championed for years by South Point casino bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro. 온라인경마

If you’re wondering how it’s possible to make real money bets on the consequences of political events in the United States and not violate federal gambling laws, you’re not alone, especially since sports books in Nevada are prohibited from accepting those kinds of bets. Brandy Travis, the chief marketing officer of Aristotle, a political software and data company that services PredictIt, says that when the site was launched in October 2014, user concerns about its legality were very common. But as the site grew and the market appeared in mainstream media coverage, those questions became much less frequent.

Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand is using PredictIt as an academic practice; it has proposed “creating a small, non-profit online market for U.S. event contracts for educational purposes.” It has received a no-action letter from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which means the CFTC will not try to shut down its site if it operates under certain variables.

The site is modeled on the Iowa Electronics Market, which has allowed political moguls to trade election result futures since 1992. The site intraday, which was quite popular in the last two presidential elections, also traded political futures, but closed in 2012 after it did not ask the CFTC for a letter of no action.

Many economists and political experts believe that the forecasting market is more accurate than the polls. In 2008, the mayor of Intrade pointed out that Barack Obama was likely to be up and down when all indications showed that he had at least a 60 percent chance of winning the election. Nate Silver claimed that it was the work of a “foolish regressive gambler,” but his ability to manipulate markets in Intrade was a huge weakness.

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