In a research note published on Sunday, Morgan Stanley Group suggests Macau’s January casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) could be around $7.75 billion ($962.6 million), or at least 31% of the same month under pre-pandemic trading conditions in 2019. The analysis is based on the agency’s daily GGR estimates for the first 15 days of January.

An important caveat is that in 2019, China’s Lunar New Year holiday was in early February, but this time it falls in January.

The festive period is traditionally an important trading period for the Macau casino industry, but holiday demand has been more muted from 2020 to 2022, coupled with China’s now-suspended “zero corona” policy. 경마사이트프로

Morgan Stanley Group raised its January GGR estimate to 250 million MOPs from 200 million MOPs [US$24.8 million] per day (123 percent on-month, 31 percent in January 2019) to 250 million MOPs, 25% higher than the consensus, it said. “85% of GGR is estimated to be bulk revenue.”

Morgan Stanley Notes Published After Analysts “First Trip” To Macau In 3 Years. They said the table minimum bet on the Macau Peninsula was “typically MOP500 and MOP2,000 in Kotai” and suggested it was “higher than expected given its low utilization.”

Banking Group JPMorgan said in a note released Monday that its weekly GGR in Macau showed “additional improvements.”

“Our inspection estimates that the GGR for the first 15 days of January is MOP 4.3 billion, which means MOP285 million to MOP290 million/day execution,” JPMorgan said.

“This suggests that GGR utilization improved further last week (January 9-15) to MOP 310 million plus,” it added. “This print represents a 40% recovery from 35% gross/headline GGR compared to pre-COVID”

The end of “Zero Corona”

Jan. 8 marks China’s major easing of COVID-19 containment protocols. Since then, the number of visitors to mainland China and Hong Kong has increased significantly, with a daily average of about 51,000 including Friday through Sunday.

Goldman Sachs (Asia) LLC was optimistic in a note on Monday, noting that several of Macau’s casino operators were “optimistic” about travel and gaming demand ahead of the week-long holiday season “when most travel restrictions are removed and healthy Spring Festival bookings are considered.” The agency hosted representatives of Galaxy Entertainment Group, SJM Holdings and MGM China Holdings at the “Consumer & Leisure” corporate event last week

For most days of the upcoming Spring Festival, available room capacity at many Kotai Casino Resort hotels has already been sold out by last week, according to a survey by GGRAcia.

The Goldman Sachs team observed that “assuming that it maintains 50-60% of pre-COVID-19 levels (compared to 260 million MOPs on Jan. 1-8) during the Chinese New Year, we expect a 300-400 million MOP headline GGR.”

Investment analysts warn that the size of visitors themselves is not an agent of the size of gambling returns. Morgan Stanley found it remarkable that China’s central government’s approval for the resumption of package tours to Macau was being “suspended.” The agency added that tourism trade accounted for 23% of Chinese visitors to the city in 2019.

In his Sunday note, Morgan Stanley mentioned one of Macau’s six casino concessions with a strong presence in the Kotai area and also mentioned downtown game venues in the city. “Sands China [Ltd] and many Peninsular casinos are expected to make full profits and are thriving as a mass business that should be bigger than 2019.

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