Trade-FA Hot People Kim Ha-sung’s “Four-Year-$68 Million” U.S. Forecast Is Realistic

The Athletic, a leading major league media outlet, predicted in an article titled “Guardians’ Introduction to MLB Trade: Three Stories to Watch” on the 13th (Korea Standard Time) that the Cleveland Guardians could covet shortstop Kim Ha-sung this summer.

Shortstop is the most desperate position for reinforcement at the Cleveland Indians, who are leading the American League Central with 43 wins and 23 losses. Brian Locino, the main shortstop, has a batting average of 0.213 (37 hits in 174 times at bat), one home run, 11 RBIs and an OPS of 0.603, which is the lowest in terms of offense.

“Guardians can find a short-term solution if they cannot be solved internally. We need a batter who can strengthen our offense immediately in the shortstop position,” the media said, predicting that Kim Ha-sung could be an attractive alternative if the Padres move away from the (Autumn Baseball) race.

Besides Cleveland, however, the Boston Red Sox and the San Francisco Giants are among the teams that need shortstop. If the San Diego Padres put Kim Ha-sung up for sale, they would rush in. 사설 토토사이트

Kim Ha-sung’s four-year, $28 million contract with San Diego will end this year. There is a $7 million mutual option for next year, but Kim Ha-sung is likely to give up. It is difficult to estimate how much Kim Ha-sung’s ransom will be, but it seems clear that it is more than $10 million. There is no reason to play for another year in San Diego for just $7 million.

For this reason, Kim Ha-sung is classified as a player with potential for trade. For San Diego, it is more beneficial to sell at an affordable price if a club emerges that the club wants to buy the product after the season, rather than being able to catch it anyway. That’s how Juan Soto was sent last winter.

However, the San Diego Padres are aiming to advance to the playoffs. It is hard to imagine selling Kim Ha-sung. He is a key player in both offense and defense. Soto may ask, “Didn’t he?” However, the situation is different for Soto, who is certain to sign an astronomical contract worth more than 500 million dollars.

With 37 wins and 35 losses, San Diego ranks second in the NL West and second in the wild card. FanGraphs suggests 58.7 percent of San Diego’s probability of entering the playoffs. Against this backdrop, there is no possibility or justification for the Kim Ha-sung trade.

Apart from the trade, Kim Ha-sung also appears in an article predicting the FA market at the end of this year.

In an article titled “Expected MLB Top Class Free Agent Contracts between 2024 and 2025, Bleacher Report (BR) placed Kim Ha-sung in ninth place and suggested the estimated contract size of four years and 68 million dollars. This is the lowest contract size ever made through local media.

On what grounds did reporter Zachary Reimer, who wrote the article, come up with these predictions? He said, “Kim Ha-sung has a mutual option of $7 million next year, but would he think of receiving an annual salary that is only half of his actual value? He has a much higher WAR than Shohei Ohtani as a batter over the past three seasons. In other words, this means that if you are openly provocative, you have to properly evaluate Kim Ha-sung’s value.”

According to the data from the Baseball Organization, however, Kim Ha-sung’s cumulative bWAR for the past three years from 2021 to 2023 is 12.7, ranking 15th among all hitters. Ohtani is also 12.7, ranking 14th, one level higher than Kim Ha-sung. In addition, Ohtani is 12.8 and Kim Ha-sung is 9.6 in attack bWAR, excluding defense. It is hard to understand that Kim Ha-sung’s WAR is much higher than Ohtani.

Nevertheless, there is no problem in accepting Kim’s claim as an assessment that he boasts the best defense capability and above-average offense capability in the Major League. “Kim Ha-sung is an efficient infielder with top-level defense capability. However, his offensive skills are not that outstanding. He is certainly a good player, but it is not easy to find a comparable case of his contract,” Leimer said. However, he cited Cleveland Guardians second baseman Andres Jimenez as a target of comparison. Jimenez signed a seven-year, 106.5 million-dollar extension contract in March last year.

The contract covers Jimenez’s three-year FA qualification, with a total annual salary of $72 million during that period. In other words, Kim Ha-sung is worth that much, but in the end, he offered four years and $68 million, which is less than that.

In January, Dennis Lin, a reporter specializing in statistics at The Athletic, predicted, “Kim Ha-sung can sign an extension contract if he guarantees $130 million to $150 million for seven years, including this year.” From then on, the perception that Kim Ha-sung has secured at least $100 million began to expand. However, Lin’s evaluation came shortly after last season, when Kim Ha-sung won the Gold Glove and showed off his above-average batting skills. With the prospect before the 2024 season, everything looks like a “long shot.”

In reality, Kim Ha-sung’s performance this year is less than that of last year. All indicators of attack and defense are on the decline from last year. Kim Ha-sung’s bWAR began to reach the top 10 since mid-June last year, but this year he is only ranked fourth in the team and is not seen in the top 30 overall.

Some experts predicted Kim’s market value to be comparable to that of Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson. Swanson signed a seven-year, 177 million-dollar contract with the Cubs in December 2022. However, Swanson is a far different player from Kim Ha-sung. He is a shortstop who can guarantee 150 hits, 20 homers and 80 to 90 RBIs in a season and has won a Gold Glove Award. Currently, he is not in a situation where he is expected to spend more than 100 million dollars on Kim Ha-sung. Even if Kim Ha-sung is hot in the trade market, it is hard to deny that Rymer’s ransom forecast reflects the reality.

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